Milk and Cigarettes

Rambles about stuff I like.

Fantasy Football is upon us again. Wives, you may begin your sobbing

Well, football season is just around the corner and you know what that means… It means fantasy football season can finally start! Let the statistical madness begin!

I’m in two FF leagues this year. One’s a 12-person, uber-competitive, trash-talking, head-games-playing, cutthroat league. The other’s a 6-person funsies league, where people like LeSean McCoy and Eli Manning probably wont get drafted.

The live draft for the cutthroat league is tomorrow night. A bunch of us are all getting together at my buddy’s place to drink beer and trash talk during the draft. It’s a snake draft, and I’m in 5th position. This means my first 3 picks are in spots: 5, 20 and 29.

I’ve done a bit of research today, and so I can probably get one of: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris or possibly Marshawn Lynch for my 1st pick. Then maybe Julio Jones, Matt Forte or Andre Johnson for 2nd pick. 3rd pick I’m hoping to pick up Matt Ryan – we’ll see.

It’s always weird how people pick RB’s first, even though QB’s get so much more points. I imagine this is because the point spread can be divided over 14 games or so, so a 50 point difference in point totals per player only translates into about 3.5 extra points a week. I’m sure there’s some mathematical formula I could come up with that would create the optimal drafting choice.

But then again, most of it is luck. If I had the number 2 pick and took Arian Foster, and then Week 2 he gets injured for the rest of the season, then my fantasy season is likely boned. On the other hand, suppose I take a flyer on Danny Amendola in the 7th round and him and Brady light it up this year! It’s sorta tough to predict.

Naturally, I’m trying to rely on statistics as much as possible. It’s a bit like picking stocks – I should be bullish on players playing on winning teams and bearish on played playing for losers. 

There’s also the notion of handcuffing your stars. If I pick a star RB with my 1st pick, then I should definitely try and pick the 2nd string RB for that team, in case my star goes down with turf toe or something.

In my 12 person league, we’ve been playing for 5 years. I think the best I’ve ever placed is 4th. Last year I didn’t even make the top 6, so I’m looking for a strong rebound year this year.

Football! Catch the fever!!

 

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August 22, 2013 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , ,

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